The Middle East after the Islamists' Capture of Syria: Future Prospects and Challenges of Global Islamist Terrorism

By Grace Mubashir, New Age Islam 10 December 2024 The Fall Of The Assad Regime In Syria At The End Of 2024 Is A Seismic Shift In The Geopolitics Of The Middle East. While It Gives Hope For A New Period Of Governance In Syria, This Development Also Poses Various Complex Questions Regarding The Future Stability Of The Region And The Continued Sectarian Contestations Besides The Persistent Threat Of Islamic Terrorism. Using Expert Opinions, This Essay Explores What The Ouster Of Assad May Be For The Future Of This Region Major Points: 1. Among the many issues that will arise from a post-Assad Syria, perhaps one of the most difficult problems would be the return of the extreme elements 2. Syria's civil war has become a mini-replica of the wider Sunni-Shia conflict, in which Iran and its proxies have sided with Assad, while the majority of the Sunni states support the opposition. 3. The story of "good terrorism" further escalates the menace of this threat. Those nations would selectively support militant groups to pursue geopolitical interests, which only contributes to this duplicity undermining efforts against terrorism. This would give extremist factions ample reasons for the cause. 4. The lessons learned in Syria will shape its destiny and present an insight into controlling terrorism worldwide. ------ The Immediate Aftermath in Syria Assad's fall leaves behind a political vacuum that may easily be filled by various factions vying for supremacy. The opposition is diverse and encompasses both moderate pro-democracy groups, Kurdish forces, and Islamist factions. The absence of a clear road map on governance and an unbridgeable ideological divide in such a diverse group will certainly make the period quite long before stability returns. There are examples in history of power vacuums always being taken advantage of by extreme groups, and Syria does not appear to be exempt. Sectarian Dynamics and Proxy Conflicts Syria's civil war has become a mini-replica of the wider Sunni-Shia conflict, in which Iran and its proxies have sided with Assad, while the opposition is supported by the majority of the Sunni states. Assad's downfall will weaken the hand of Iran in Syria and embolden Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey to dominate the post-Assad order. This will re-ignite sectarian tensions in areas where demographics are mixed or loyalties are divided. Iran's diminished influence in Syria has implications beyond its borders as well, since the strategic corridor it had been pursuing through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon-the so-called "Shia Crescent"-has been dealt a significant blow. This may alter Iran's foreign policy, and even spur its adversaries, such as Israel, to step up the pressure against Hezbollah and other Iranian allies in Lebanon and elsewhere. Wider Regional Consequences The fall of the Assad regime could have destabilizing effects on neighbouring countries. Lebanon, already fragile because of its economic collapse and sectarian divisions, risks being pulled into deeper conflict as various factions vie for influence. Iraq, too, faces renewed pressure as sectarian divides deepen amid shifting allegiances. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the two big players in the Syrian conflict, will be having more influence on the future course of Syria. This also comes with the burden of keeping further fragmentation at bay and an extremist ideology dominating the political turf. Israel is likely to keep an eye on this front as well, maintaining vigil on Iranian influence while not allowing spillover across its borders. Global Hypocrisy and the "Good Terrorism" Paradigm Syria's ordeal has uncovered global hypocrisies in dealing with terrorism and human rights. The major powers have often chosen to ignore the actions of their allies, thereby perpetuating the cycle of violence and extremism. This inconsistency undermines moral authority and creates an environment in which non-state actors feel legitimized in pursuing violent objectives under the banner of resistance. Terrorism Challenges of the Post-Syrian Revolution The Syrian revolution, which led to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in 2024, is a history-making moment for the Middle East. However, with it came new challenges to the region, especially terrorism. As Syria transitions into the complexities of post-conflict recovery, the shaken environment and wider regional effects increase the likelihood of terrorism. The Conditions Favouring Terrorism in Post-Revolution Syria Assad's fall has left a vacuum of power in Syria, making it an easy opportunity for extremist groups to resurface or get stronger. History has proven that such vacuums usually breed instability, especially in regions with weak governance, high levels of poverty, and unsettled grievances. Syria is one of those vulnerabilities, now going into its twelfth year of civil war. 1. Fragmentation of Power: The Syrian opposition, though united on its objective of overthrowing Assad, is heterogeneous and ideologically diverse. This diversity breeds anarchy as different factions compete with one another for power. Extremists, such as remaining pockets of ISIS, can take advantage of the divisions by forming alliances with ostracized groups or seizing local governance systems. 2. Economic Despair: Syria's economy has been battered and bruised by the long years of war, sanctions, and displacement. High unemployment is particularly prevalent among youth; this is fertile ground for extremist ideologies. With little economic opportunity, many alienated individuals may look towards militant groups for both financial and ideological support. 3. Ethnic and Sectarian Divides: The Syrian population is highly fractured along ethnic and sectarian lines. The Sunni majority has long been excluded from power under the Alawite-dominated Assad regime and wants greater representation. The minority groups, such as Christians, Alawites, and Kurds, are afraid of retribution. These divisions can be exploited by terrorist groups to exacerbate the conflict. Regional Dimensions of Terrorism The implications of the Syrian revolution are vast, and those lie heavily in the Middle East with its terrorism domain. The country's instability affects its neighbouring states, which are already waging a war on their security battles. 1. Lebanon and Iraq Both countries have suffered greatly from the spillover impacts of the Syrian conflict. Lebanon, with its shaky sectarian balance, is an easy prey for extremist infiltration. Iraq risks the reappearance of ISIS in districts where governance is weak. The falling of Assad will change the balance in the region and has the potential to embolden extremist factions in each country. 2. Proxy Conflicts and Terrorism: Syria has been a battleground for proxy wars involving regional and global powers. Countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have supported different factions, often with little regard for the long-term consequences. This competition has empowered militant groups, many of which operate as proxies for state actors. 3. Border Security Challenges: Syria's porous borders make it easy to move fighters, weapons, and illicit goods. All this poses a security problem for neighbouring countries, thereby complicating counter-terrorism and increasing the risk of regional instability. Global Implications of Syrian Terrorism Beyond the Middle East, the Syrian revolution sets in motion new dynamics in global terrorism, drawing attention to the fact that Syria is already the focal point where many of the foreign fighters who entered the country during the civil war to join forces like ISIS, may again find their way to such environments post-revolution. 1. The Return of Foreign Fighters Thousands of foreign fighters who once joined ISIS or other groups may try to return to their home countries or migrate to new conflict zones. Their experiences in Syria make them highly dangerous, and capable of spreading extremist ideologies and tactics globally. 2. Terrorism Financing and Networks: Extremist groups in Syria have developed complex funding networks, mostly through illegal trade, extortion, and donations from sympathetic individuals abroad. These networks enable them to sustain operations and expand their influence beyond Syria. 3. Ideological Propagation: The story of resistance and jihad in Syria continues to inspire extremist ideologies worldwide. But the fall of Assad's regime will shift these narratives; it will not get rid of the ideological underpinnings of global terrorism. International Actors The international community also plays a critical role in charting Syria's post-revolution trajectory and fighting terrorism, but inconsistent policies and conflicting interests have too often undermined these efforts. 1. Inconsistent Counter-Terrorism Policies: There are many cases where states support militant groups in Syria, which have operated with extremist ideologies, that also fall within their strategic interest. Such practices of "good terrorism" contravene global counter-terrorism norms and make efforts at finding the root causes of extremism more complicated. 2. Humanitarian and Reconstruction Efforts: Addressing terrorism in Syria goes beyond military intervention. Economic reconstruction, education, and reconciliation efforts are important for dealing with the grievances that lead to radicalization. Such efforts must be taken as priorities by the international actors in creating sustainable peace. 3. Cooperation with Regional Powers: The policies for counter-terrorism will rely on regional powers where cooperation and involvement of nations with differing interests over Syria will be necessary. All regional players need to converge toward common policies over border security, intelligence, and the de-escalation of proxy wars. Counter-Terrorism Measures for Post-Revolution Syria Multi-pronged strategies will need to be used in handling terrorism that include: 1. Local Governance: This means preventive measures against extremism and making inroads with inclusive and effective structures in the governance of Syria: This is by empowering security at all levels, services in towns and their representation for marginalized people in local authorities. 2. Economic Revitalization Restoration of the Syrian economy should be pursued through international investment and assistance and thereby create employment, which also may alter and reduce the appeal to radical beliefs. 3. Contestation For Ideological Extremists: Efforts against terrorism must involve ideological dimensions. Educational programs, media campaigns, and community outreach can all be used to counter extremist narratives and promote tolerance. 4. International Accountability: The international community must ensure that there is accountability from actors for supporting extremist groups and that any counter-terrorism efforts respect human rights and international law. A New Chapter or the Same Story? While the fall of Assad may be a symbol of hope for democratic aspirations in Syria, the history of the country and its complex geopolitics within the region suggest that it will not be an easy journey. Sustained international engagement with equitable power-sharing among various factions and strong measures preventing the resurgence of extremist groups can ensure a successful transition in Syria. This is a message that will call upon the international community to reconcile and rebuild Syria based on an understanding of the causes of extremism. In this context, an approach toward more consistent, principled action in fighting terrorism and foreign interventionism is called for so that this post-Assad period does not become the simple continuation of the same old cycles of violence plaguing the region. This critical juncture in Middle Eastern history underscores the complex interplay of sectarianism, geopolitics, and the never-ending challenge of Islamic terrorism. How the world responds to Syria's transformation will shape not only its future but also that of the broader trajectory of the Middle East in years to come. ---- A regular columnist for NewAgeIslam.com, Mubashir V.P is a PhD scholar in Islamic Studies at Jamia Millia Islamia and freelance journalist. URL: https://www.newageislam.com/islam-politics/assad-syria-global-islamist-terrorism/d/133982 New Age Islam, Islam Online, Islamic Website, African Muslim News, Arab World News, South Asia News, Indian Muslim News, World Muslim News, Women in Islam, Islamic Feminism, Arab Women, Women In Arab, Islamophobia in America, Muslim Women in West, Islam Women and Feminism