UP Muslims May Vote For BJP In 2024 Lok Sabha Elections - To Shift Loyalty From Traditional Religious Block To Sub-Caste Identities

By Syed Ali Mujtaba, New Age Islam 24 February 2024 An electoral survey Mapping Muslim voting behaviour for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, says Muslim voting behaviour is gravitating toward the BJP, and the vote share of the saffron party vis-à-vis Muslims may go up. This survey was carried out by Feyaad Allie a post-doctoral fellow in the Government Department at Harvard University. He travelled across eighteen districts in eastern, central, and western Uttar Pradesh. The sample included 1,468 Muslims who identified as Pasmanda (OBC and Dalit) and 480 who identified as General or Upper Caste. Additionally, the Hindu sample of the survey included 355 Hindus identifying as Upper Caste, 1,180 identifying as OBC, and 389 identifying as from the Scheduled Castes. The survey that was conducted in 2024, revealed that in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Muslims are going to shift their loyalty from its traditional religious block and may vote on their sub-caste identities which may bolster the chances of the BJP in the 2024 general elections. The survey disclosed that till 2012, only a small percentage of Muslims voted for BJP candidates but by 2017, the percentage increased, with nearly 12.6% of general Muslims and 8% of Pasmanda Muslims voting for the BJP. The survey remarks that Muslim voting behaviour is influenced by the presence (or absence) of a co-ethnic representative in the electoral fray. It’s from this behaviour it can be inferred that Muslim representative can activate internal divisions among Muslims that may shape their subsequent voting pattern. These divisions can manifest along sub-identities within the broader Muslim identity, according to the survey. It says a range of factors appear to shape Muslim voting behaviour. First Muslims vote according to their state’s electoral context like how many parties are contesting. How many Muslim candidates these parties are fielding prospects to lure the Muslim votes which results in the division of Muslim votes in multipolar contests? The survey did a comparative study of Muslim voting behaviour in the state assembly elections after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, suggesting some consolidation of Muslim votes has been registered. In the 2020 Bihar elections, about 77% of Muslims voted for the Mahagathbandhan, 75% for the Trinamool Congress in the 2021 West Bengal elections, and 79% for the Samajwadi Party in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections. The survey reveals that in the 2022 state elections, 9.8% of general Muslims supported the BJP, whereas 9.1% of Pasmanda Muslims supported the BJP. The entire text of the survey can be accessed from this link- https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/02/09/mapping-muslim-voting-behavior-in-india-pub-91579 ----- Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai. URL: https://newageislam.com/current-affairs/up-muslims-bjp-vote-traditional-religious-sub-caste/d/131790 New Age Islam, Islam Online, Islamic Website, African Muslim News, Arab World News, South Asia News, Indian Muslim News, World Muslim News, Women in Islam, Islamic Feminism, Arab Women, Women In Arab, Islamophobia in America, Muslim Women in West, Islam Women and Feminism