Sudan Crisis: Is It Just A Power Struggle Between Two Leaders, Or Is It More?

By Ghulam Ghaus Siddiqi, New Age Islam 1 May 2023 “Sudan Crisis Runs Deeper Than Power Struggle” Main Points: 1. The armed conflicts between Sudan’s military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have created a sense of civil war in the nation. 2. Until recently, the leaders of the two forces, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan were allies but what sparked the present unrest in Sudan? 3. The greatest issue is the significant number of lives lost in this conflict. Both those who are killed and those who are killing are Muslims. 4. The religion of both groups states that taking the life of one person is the same as taking the life of all humanity, but they are not implementing this teaching into their practice. ----- People have used the relative lull in fighting to go outside their homes (Reuters) ----- When bullets are fired, they are blind and do not recognise a civilian, a member of the military, or a militia. Human instinct drives him to run away from the perils he faces in an effort to survive. Sudan is currently experiencing similar circumstances, where shots are being fired nonstop. The armed conflicts between Sudan’s military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have created a sense of civil war in the nation. The conflict broke out on April 15, 2023, and has resulted in hundreds of fatalities, a large evacuation of foreigners, and the siege of more than 40 million people. Due to a lack of water, energy, and communications as well as the collapse of the health system, the situation is getting worse. The world has been eager to evacuate its citizens from Sudan over the past few days. Headquarters of foreign missions and embassies are being attacked and thousands of Sudanese citizens have attempted to cross into neighbouring countries to flee their impending fate at home after it became impossible to live there. The paramilitary RSF outfit, led by Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, and the Sudanese military, under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, are widely believed to be at war for power. Is this true, or do we still need to know more about what sparked the present unrest in Sudan? In a column for CBS News, Haley OTT states: Until recently, the leaders of the two forces, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan were allies. In 2019 they worked together to topple Omar al-Bashir who ruled over the country for the last three decades. Following the coup, a power-sharing government made up of civilian and military groups was established. It was intended to monitor the transition to a fully civilian-run administration after a few years of running Sudan. Al-Burhan, who had taken over leadership of the power-sharing council, dissolved it in 2021 and announced that elections would instead take place in 2023. Prior to the anticipated restoration of civilian government, negotiations to combine the two forces failed, which resulted in the ongoing conflict between the army and the RSF. There were differences of opinion on who would be the superior general and how quickly the RSF would be integrated into the Sudanese military. [Summarized from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sudan-war-fighting-2023-crisis/] ------------------------------------------------------------------ Also Read: Sudan: Misplaced Aspirations of Two Army Generals Turned A Country Into A Hell ------------------------------------------------------------------ According to Nima Elbagir, Tamara Qiblawi and Amarachi Orie, CNN, A power struggle is at the centre of the fighting. Sudib Sontoran wrote a column for Daily Sabah under the headline “Sudan crisis runs deeper than power struggle”. With reference to analysts, the author presented the view that the issue in Sudan is varied and complex despite being viewed as a power struggle because of its history of external interference and the growing interest of regional and global powers in the region. Mayada Kamal Eldeen, a Sudanese political expert, argues that the present conflict is the outcome of political concerns that began in 2019 after Omar al-Bashir was toppled. The army and RSF staged a coup in 2021, overturning the transition to civilian rule and installing al-Burhan as the de facto ruler. However, a breakdown in communication between the military and civilian institutions of the state made the issue worse. An initial transition period of two years was announced, and it was then extended by an additional two years. Eldeen contends that during that time, civilians and the military were unable to come to an agreement on important matters including the elections, the formation of a civilian government, parliament and the choosing of a prime minister. Eldeen stressed both Sudan's strategic importance in the region and its enormous natural resources. She claimed that before South Sudan's secession, Sudan, which is today the third-largest country in Africa and has one of the longest coasts on the Red Sea, was one of the largest nations in both Africa and the Arab world. Because of Sudan's ports and military facilities, Russia and the United States are at odds. Turkish officials regularly refer to Sudan as "our gateway to Africa" and emphasise the importance of the country due to its abundance of freshwater resources and perfect agricultural land. It is also Africa's third-largest gold producer, and in previous years, the national budget has benefited up to 40% from gold production. These factors have brought on a lot of external attention and interventions for Sudan. The crisis in Sudan has received extensive coverage in global media, and Eldeen blamed regional and international actors, such as the U.S., U.K. and Russia, as well as regional powers like the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. These countries have both intervened or exerted pressure on Sudan and its policies, particularly after the overthrow of al-Bashir in 2019. Volker Perthes, the United Nations' special envoy to Sudan, is also active in the country's political process and negotiations, but their activities are often seen as negative interventions, impeding stability in Sudan. Russia has established a presence in Sudan through its mercenary group Wagner, which began its deployments during the rule of former President al-Bashir and continued after his fall in partnership with a Russian mining company. Serhat Orakç, a Turkish academic and a political analyst specializing in African affairs, argued that the crisis may be deeper than just a power struggle, as “the RSF has a history of profit-seeking by providing mercenary soldiers to Libya and Yemen, controlling arms and car smuggling, investing in real estate, and controlling gold mines”. According to Orakç, with a military force of more than 100,000, the RSF is a state inside a state and an army within an army in Sudan. It aims to seize control of the country's resources by assuming power on its own, refusing to give up its gains. Orakç stressed how Sudan's natural riches and advantageous geographic location in Africa give it geopolitical prominence and arouse others' curiosity. Sudan has strong ties to the Middle East as a result of its subterranean resources, including oil and gold, and its strategic location in Africa. Its importance is further increased by the Red Sea's closeness and the Nile River's being there. It is difficult to argue that what is happening in Sudan has nothing to do with the economic, political, and geopolitical goals of regional and international actors. Orakç added that working with regional players like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, and Ethiopia, the US, Russia, and China are directing Sudan in the direction of their own axes. After the Omar al-Bashir regime was toppled in 2019, Orakç continued, "It was well known that foreign players funded the Sovereignty Council, which was predominated by military people and impeded the civilian transitions.” When Sudan lost territories to South Sudan in 2011, it was divided. Orakç asserts that South Kordofan and Darfur are occasionally experiencing similar trends. He asserts that while the present crisis in the country would not cause a new split in the near future, it might exacerbate the regional issues of Sudan. Based on a state-backed paramilitary group in Darfur, the RSFs are at war with the Sudanese Armed Forces at the moment. The Janjaweed militias were established in Darfur to destroy separatist armed groups; under Omar al-Bashir's leadership, they eventually changed their designations to Border Forces and then to RSF. If this structure, which also has connections to Chad and Libya, is dismantled, further security difficulties could arise in Sudan and the surrounding countries. Orakç recognized the importance of Sudan for neighbouring Egypt. There are deep historical, political, economic, and military-security ties between Egypt and Sudan, and the Nile River makes this relationship strategic. Egypt supports the Sudanese army and provides guidance in suppressing civilian groups who advocate for civilian rule. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have tapped on RSF mercenaries to support Libya’s Gen. Khalifa Haftar and to fight against the Houthis in Yemen. Israel has also been known to establish relationships and cooperation with conflicting parties in Sudan under the guise of normalization. According to Orakç, this shows that conflicting parties are receiving financial and weapon support from the same regional powers. It is difficult to assume from the viewpoints of Serhat Orakç and Mayada Kamal Eldeen that the violence in Sudan is purely the product of a struggle for power. However, the country's crisis is more complicated, multifaceted, and pervasive than a simple power struggle. The main effect of the conflict is that it is impeding the democratisation of the Sudanese government and the establishment of a system of government based on the will of the people. [Summarized from Sudan crisis runs deeper than power struggle: Analysts, Daily Sabah] The greatest issue is the significant number of lives lost in this conflict. Both those who are killed and those who are killing are Muslims. The teachings of this religion, which are adhered to by both groups, declare that taking the life of one person is the same as taking the life of all humanity, and saving the life of one person is the same as saving the lives of all humanity. So both sides should put an end to the conflict as soon as possible. Even though the international community is already actively engaged in efforts to avert war in Sudan, we urge them to contribute significantly and sincerely to permanently ending the ongoing conflict. ------ A regular columnist with NewAgeIslam.com, Ghulam Ghaus Siddiqi Dehlvi is a classical Islamic scholar with a Sufi background and an English-Arabic-Urdu Translator. 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