The consistently secular voting behaviour of Indian Muslims since the first parliamentary election is perhaps the most significant and least acknowledged fact of our electoral politics. The reason is the superficial manner in which secular discourse is framed by our political elites, which often give it a populist spin at the cost of the substantive elements of secular practice. Consequently, the idea of secularism today resembles a shapeless hat, whose meaning for political parties changes depending on who wears it for what purposes, and in what manner. While its political significance in this election remains as strong for rival political elites as in the past, for Muslim voters secularism as campaign rhetoric emanating from the politics of fear is less appealing this time compared to the 1989, 1991 or 1996 elections.
According to the Census 2001, in 182 out of 593 districts, Muslims constitute 10 per cent or more but less than 25 per cent of the district's total population. Thus, in situations of multi-cornered contests, en bloc Muslim voting in constituencies located in these districts could define the majority character of any regime. Furthermore, Muslims show a relatively younger age distribution.
The emergence of the Third Front and Fourth Front, together with the remnants of the Congress-led UPA and the BJP-led NDA, offers wider opportunities to Muslim voters regardless of the post-poll fate of these fronts. This time, Muslim voting behaviour will be determined by a combination of national, local and global factors, but the first two factors may overwhelm the third in most situations. Also, the nature of that combination is contingent upon the class and region to which the voters belong. Thus, Muslims in Azamgarh will have a different mix of considerations determining voting choices compared to, say, Muslims in Nandigram.
http://newageislam.com/india--muslim-strategy-in-present-elections--/islam-and-politics/d/1350
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