One Year of Bangladesh in Crisis: Coup, Democratic Slippage, and the Resurgence of the Islamists

By New Age Islam Correspondent 5 August 2025 This article analyses one year of post-Hasina Bangladesh and how the nation backslided from democracy and secularism to political Islam and minority lynching. Main Points: 1. The recent coup in Bangladesh is not a change of government alone. It is an indication that history is repeating itself — political Islam, military dictatorship, and the uncertain future of democracy in South Asia. It is against the vision of Bangladesh as a secular, modern majority Muslim state 2. The erosion of democracy opened up a space — not only to public outrage but also to opportunist Islamist parties to re-enter the political landscape under the guise of defending Islam and morality. 3. For India, the Bangladesh crisis presents enormous security and diplomatic challenges. The close rapport between Sheikh Hasina and the Indian government — and in the fields of combating terrorism, trade, and sharing water — has come to a new and uncertain phase. ----- The past few months have witnessed Bangladesh entering a very uncertain period since it gained independence. The coup that has struck the nation has ushered in a dangerous new chapter — one of instability, reduced democracy, and a powerful comeback of Islamist forces. The implications are not limited to within the borders of the nation. South Asia is observing closely, particularly India, Nepal, Bhutan, and China. The emergence of Jamaat-e-Islami and other hard-line Islamist parties during this crisis is a complex scenario, triggering concerns about instability in a region that is already beset by community tensions, weak economies, and unresolved conflict. This paper examines the current issues in Bangladesh since the coup, the downslide of democracy that facilitated it, the surge of Islamist parties such as Jamaat-e-Islami, and how all these influence regional security and diplomatic relations. The Coup: What Happened? On a tense August morning in 2025, the Bangladeshi military took strategic positions in Dhaka, the national parliament, media headquarters, and military command centers. The nearly two-decade-long ruling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was placed under house arrest. Soon, a National Salvation Council backed by the military declared that there would be an interim government, vowing to "restore democracy" and "uproot corrupt elements." This was not the first coup d'etat in the country. Bangladesh has a chequered history of military coups since it gained independence from Pakistan in 1971. But times have changed now. The coup was staged because the majority were dissatisfied with Hasina's regime, alleging that there was rigging of elections, there was state harassment, and there was political opposition suppression. While the military asserted that it had acted in the nation's interest, civil society movements and international observers worry about a perilous slippage toward authoritarianism, particularly with the rising tide of political Islam. A Democracy in Decline In order to understand the coup, you must take into account how democracy fell apart in the lead-up to it. Bangladesh was a model of economic development and democracy in a Muslim country but has been trending towards dictatorship for ten years. Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government exercised strong rule, disempowered major institutions, and jailed opposition leaders, including some from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami. Both the 2014 and 2018 elections were marred by widespread allegations of rigging, intimidation of voters, and violence. Reporters, human rights defenders, and activists were threatened and arrested and even subjected to enforced disappearances. The Digital Security Act passed in 2018 further curbed state control on freedom of expression and enabled repression of dissent on all social media. Hasina's government improved infrastructure and lowered poverty rates, but at the cost of undermining democracy. The governing party was criticized for creating a one-party state, eroding checks and balances, and using security forces to silence opposition. This erosion of democracy opened up a space — not only to public outrage but also to opportunist Islamist parties to re-enter the political landscape under the guise of defending Islam and morality. The Revival of Political Islam One of the most alarming new trends of the ongoing crisis is the return to politics of Islamist parties, particularly Jamaat-e-Islami, who were relegated to the periphery for four decades. Jamaat-e-Islami began in the Indian subcontinent before its division by Syed Abul A'la Maududi. The party was controversially involved in Bangladesh's 1971 Liberation War, when they were allies of the Pakistan Army and against the war of independence. Following Bangladesh's independence, the party was banned numerous times, and its senior leaders were subsequently tried for war crimes by the Hasina regime. But political Islam never vanished from people's minds. It just went underground, anticipating its opportunity. The post-coup environment has been productive. The government, under pressure to pacify the streets and galvanize the people against it, has started negotiating with Jamaat and other Islamist parties, say reports. Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet have seen demonstrations that have borne witness to a clear Islamist presence. "Islamic justice," "Sharia reform," and anti-Indian slogans have become popular, especially among youth who are upset over unemployment and limited political choices. Madrasas and Islamic NGOs, which have been watched carefully during Hasina's time, are now starting to come back. Online propaganda, mostly on secure platforms and YouTube preachers, is spreading rapidly on social media. Important religious leaders like Mufti Nur Hossain and groups like Hefazat-e-Islam are starting to influence the stories of Islamic revival in a ‘post-corrupt’ Bangladesh. Certain Islamist parties are trying to look moderate and democratic, and others are reviving classic slogans like Nizam-e-Mustafa (rule of the Prophet) and even demanding an Islamic constitution. Such ideas can tear apart the secular fabric of Bangladesh. Jamaat-e-Islami: The Comeback Vehicle? Jamaat-e-Islami has become the most organised group to benefit from the coup. Even though the Bangladesh Election Commission removed it as a political party in 2013 for breaking the rules about being secular, the group has kept a strong network at the local level through student groups (like Islami Chhatra Shibir), charities, and support from mosques. The war crimes trials and hangings of Jamaat leadership had pushed the party onto the back foot. But with the collapse of the Awami League monopoly and the breakdown of BNP, Jamaat has found its way back into the political vacuum. In certain constituencies, its cadres are organizing relief, giving mosque sermons, and regaining political legitimacy under the radar. Leaked documents report that certain components of the military consider Jamaat a stabilizing element of utmost significance. They are of the opinion that it can rally rural folk and diminish Indian influence. Whatever a strategic alliance or ideological conversion, nothing can be guaranteed, but the stakes are dire in either case. Bangladesh could become a land where nationalist and Islamic populists, supported by the military, clash. Both of them do not believe in liberal, secular, and democratic politics. Regional Implications: India's Nightmare? For India, the Bangladesh crisis presents enormous security and diplomatic challenges. The close rapport between Sheikh Hasina and the Indian government — and in the fields of combating terrorism, trade, and sharing water — has come to a new and uncertain phase. New Delhi saw Hasina as a trusted friend who had stopped anti-India rebel groups, contained cross-border terrorism, and kept Islamist forces at bay. Her fall and the ascendance of Islamist rhetoric nearby is causing Indian security establishments to worry. Indian states of West Bengal and Assam already experience identity-based issues and illegal immigration-related issues. Now, they need to deal with new border tensions. Indian civil society organizations can use the increasing Islamism in Bangladesh to mobilize local feelings against Muslims, especially Bengali-speaking Muslims. There is also the threat of refugee displacement if the conflict spreads. The specter of the 1971 refugee flow, when close to 10 million Bangladeshis poured across India during the Liberation War, still haunts the region. Other countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar, apart from India, are keeping a close eye. China is also a worry. Beijing has made massive investments in Bangladesh as part of the Belt and Road Initiative and might try to impose stability on the country through back-channel talks or military relationships. The US and Global Silence It is curious that the international reaction to the Bangladesh coup has been subdued. The United States, United Kingdom, and European Union — who were opposed to Hasina's drift towards authoritarianism — have been tight-lipped, condemning the coup. Rather, most Western nations are holding their breath and waiting, perhaps hoping the military will be conducting elections shortly. This global silence may inadvertently encourage authoritarian forces and make it harder for Bangladesh's civil society to resist. The United Nations sounded the alarm, but nothing has been done. What Lies Ahead? The prospects for Bangladesh are unclear. There are a number of possible scenarios. One, the military regime consolidates its grip, with or without elections, and rules by combining nationalism and religious conservatism. Two, democratic elements unite and push the military out of power, though no one party presently has the nation's complete backing. Three, there is a protracted struggle between secular and Islamist elements that makes the nation more unstable. The streets are chaotic today. University students are rioting again — a chilling reminder of past revolutions. The factories are closed. The countryside is quiet but tense. The tall skyscrapers and highways of Dhaka hide a hidden fear that is seeping through neighbourhoods, tea stalls, and madrasas. Conclusion The recent coup in Bangladesh is not a change of government alone. It is an indication that history is repeating itself — political Islam, military dictatorship, and the uncertain future of democracy in South Asia. It is against the vision of Bangladesh as a secular, modern majority Muslim state. As the region grapples with its effects, the world needs to pay attention more. What happens to Bangladesh's future will not only affect 170 million people but potentially alter the power dynamics of South Asia. Whether it collapses into anarchy or finds a new democratic trajectory depends on how its people, its institutions, and its neighbors react to this turning point. 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